Oil prices, foreign fund flows to guide rupee's movement

Mumbai   :  Fluctuations in crude oil prices, along with the direction of foreign fund flows are expected to influence the Indian rupee's movement against the US dollar in the coming week, experts said on Saturday.

"Indian rupee is unable to benefit from the decline in oil prices... the hawkish US Fed continues to drive US dollar higher," Anindya Banerjee, Deputy Vice President for Currency and Interest Rates with Kotak Securities, told IANS.

"Over the next week, we expect USD-INR to trade within a range of 67.80 and 68.40 levels on spot."

On a weekly basis, the rupee weakened by 51 paise to 68.02 against the US dollar from its previous week's close of 67.51 per greenback.

Last week, an interest rate hike in the US, coupled with the European Central Bank's decision to end its quantitative easing policy and the US President Donald Trump's approval to tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese exports dampened the rupee's prospects.

However, a reduction in crude oil prices in anticipation of a relaxation in supply cuts by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and Russia is expected to support the Indian rupee. 

According to Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities: "In the coming week, direction of oil prices could determine the trend of rupee with Friday's weakening of oil prices possibly leading to a better opening for the rupee. It may remain in the 67.47-68.43 band for the week."