BJP and new allies in 2019

Recent statements of BJP trouble shooter Ram Madhav about finding new allies for BJP in 2019 elections generated curiosity and debate in political circles. After his statements, people also started discussing which are those parties joining NDA before 2019 elections.

Equations changed after 2018 assembly elections:

BJP got shocking results in recent assembly elections. BJP narrowly missed Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan and lost Chhattisgarh which was ruled by BJP since 2003. Before these elections, BJP leaders used to say that their party was ruling in 19 of the 29 states which is about 70 per cent of India’s area. But after the results, in which BJP received a jolt, all the allies of BJP started raising their voice. Some parties started demanding a bigger share of seats and some others asking for other benefits. Already TDP, Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP walked out of NDA and latest to leave is Kushwaha (Bihar). Union minister Upendra Kushwaha resigned from Modi cabinet and left NDA because of seat-sharing issues. Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Samtaa Party (RLSP) – joined grand alliance of Congress and Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar.

As the discontent is growing among the allies and many other parties are opening up their voices, BJP leader and trouble shooter Ram Madhav started damage control actions and spoke about finding new allies before 2019 elections

Ram Madhav’s statement

Ram Madhav responded about the issue and told, “Alliance politics is all about accommodation and adjustment and for that, the BJP is ready,” Ram Madhav said. “It is true that certain smaller allies like Kushwaha have decided to leave us, but we are working on bringing new allies into our fold, especially in south India and the eastern India.” Even though Ram Madhav did not name any party’s name specifically as a potential new ally, speculations and debates started about these new allies. Especially because he mentioned these new allies will be from south India and the eastern India

Ram Vilas Paswan and Naveen Patnaik

Last week, after Kushwaha left NDA, BJP sorted its differences with Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP. As part of agreement, BJP will be allotting LJP two more seats, one in Lok Sabha and the other in Rajya Sabha in 2019. So, BJP could now retain LJP.

But still there are debates what are those new allies for BJP in 2019. Odisha Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, has been maintaining equal distance from both the Congress and the BJP. But he had earlier offered issue-based support to the BJP. So it needs to be seen if Naveen joins NDA before 2019

AIADMK leader Thambidurai’s comments indicate alliance with BJP? Will Rajni support Modi?

AIADMK leader Thambi Durai made sensational comments on Jayalalitha as he said, DMK is responsible for Jaya’s death. He had claimed that a suit filed by the DMK in connection with the disproportionate assets case was the reason behind the deterioration of the former CM’s health, which subsequently led to her demise. He also lambasted Rahul Gandhi for not visiting the victims of Gaja cyclone. The way he targeted Congress and DMK clearly indicating that AIADMK is leaning towards BJP. So, it needs to be seen if Ram Madhav wants to have alliance with AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. However, AIADMK is facing severe anti-incumbency and it may not win single seat in 2019 elections, as per reports

There has also been speculation about Rajinikanth, who is a new entrant to politics supporting Modi. The state’s opposition DMK has repeatedly claimed that Rajni will eventually join the BJP. Rajni also told earlier that Modi is his best friend.

Will YSRCP or Janasena join BJP?

As TRS is planning to start a federal front, it may not join NDA. So in Telugu states, the parties that have chances of joining NDA are Janasena and YSRCP. But Pawan Kalyan has been saying joining hands with BJP is hara-kiri for any party. YSRCP, even though not directly supporting BJP, it is lending issue based support to NDA. It has extended support during the elections of President and vice-president. So like Naveen Patnaik, Jagan also may join hands with BJP. But there is lot of anti-mood among people on BJP for ditching on Special category status. So, Modi has to deliver at least some of the promises made during 2014 elections immediately so that YSRCP may be able to justify joining NDA.

Within couple of months people may get complete clarity on who will be in NDA and who will not be.