Goa expected to re-elect BJP with clear majority

New Delhi, Sep 3 (IANS) The coastal state of Goa is expected to re-elect the ruling BJP with a clear majority this time, while the AAP is likely to emerge as a key political player in the state, giving tough fight to the Congress for the slot of the main opposition party in the 2022 Assembly polls, as things stand today, as per the ABP-CVOTER-IANS BATTLE FOR THE STATES - WAVE 1.

The sample size for the survey was 81,006 in five states covering 690 Assembly seats. This state poll is part of the largest and definitive independent sample survey tracker series carried out in India over the last 22 years, conducted by independent international polling agency CVoter.

May 2009 onwards, the survey has been carried out each week, 52 waves in a calendar year, in 11 national languages, across all states and UTs in India, with a target sample size of 3000 samples each wave. The average response rate is 55 petr cent. Starting January 1, 2019, CVoter is carrying the tracker on daily basis, using the rollover sample of seven days (last six days + today) for tracker analysis.

According to latest round of opinion poll, while the vote share of BJP is expected to witness a jump of 6.9 per cent from 32.5 per cent in 2017 to 39.4 per cent in 2022, the vote share of AAP is likely to go up by 15.9 per cent from 6.3 per cent in 2017 to 22.2 per cent in 2022. The vote share of the Congress is expected to witness a dip of 13 per cent from 28.4 per cent in 2017 to 15.4 per cent in 2022.

Translated into seats, the BJP is expected to win 22 to 26 seats in Goa, AAP is likely to grab 4 to 8 seats and the Congress can secure 3 to 7 seats in the upcoming Assembly elections in the state scheduled next year. The total strength of Goa Assembly is 40.

According to the survey data, sitting chief minister Pramod Sawant has emerged as the strongest contender for the top job in 2022. Almost one-third of the respondents -- 33.2 per cent -- said that Sawant is their preferred choice to be the chief minister of the state.

Interestingly, while AAP has not projected any CM face in the state, 13.8 per cent of the respondents said that an AAP candidate would be their preferred choice for the post of chief minister.

The survey data revealed that more number of people are satisfied with the performance of the BJP government than those who are not satisfied with performance of the incumbent government.

During the survey, while 32.2 per cent said that they are very much satisfied, 45.9 per cent stated they are satisfied to some extent with the performance of the BJP government. Only 21.7 per cent said that they are not satisfied at all with the performance of the state government.

The survey data clearly shows that there is no anti-incumbency against sitting chief minister Pramod Sawant.

Out of those interviewed during the survey, while 24.7 per cent of the respondents said that they are very much satisfied with the performance of the sitting chief minister, 53.6 per cent of the respondents expressed satisfaction to some extent. Only 20.7 per cent expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of the incumbent chief minister.

As for sitting MLAs, while 36.5 per cent of the respondents said that they are very much satisfied, 27.6 per cent stated they are satisfied to some extent. A total of 34.6 per cent of those interviewed during the survey expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of the sitting MLAs.

According to the survey data, price rise, Corona and unemployment are the biggest issues of concern for the voters.

A total of 31.2 per cent of those interviewed during the survey said that price rise is the main issue facing them, 29.3 per cent stated Covid-induced problems are their main concern and 24.2 per cent felt that unemployment is the main issue.