Updated NDCs still nowhere near Paris target: UNFCCC

New Delhi, Oct 25 (IANS) With less than a week to go for the COP26, the updated synthesis report of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) shows that for all available NDCs of all 192 parties taken together, there would be a sizable increase, of about 16 per cent, in global GHG emissions in 2030 compared to 2010.

And even more alarming is the fact that in comparison to the latest findings by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), such an increase, unless changed quickly, may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, as per the United Nation's Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)'s update to the synthesis of climate action plans as communicated in countries' NDCs.

COP26, the Conference of Parties, will see countries that are party to the UNFCCC, meet at the UK's Glasgow for two weeks, from October 31, to negotiate and discuss climate action plans to reduce emissions in order to restrict global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial era as per the Paris Agreement 2015.

The update of key findings of the NDC Synthesis Report confirms the overall trends identified by the full report, which was released on September 17.

This updated or new climate action plans by the countries ahead of the COP26 can be effective in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over time, the UNFCCC said.

For the group of 143 parties that submitted new or updated NDCs, total GHG emissions are estimated to be about 9 per cent below the 2010 level by 2030. Further, within that group, some 71 parties communicated a carbon neutrality goal around the mid-century.

The report finds that these parties' total GHG emission level could be 83-88 per cent lower in 2050 than in 2019, the UNFCCC said in a global release.

"These updated NDCs clearly represent a commitment to acting on climate change. At the same time, the message from this update is loud and clear: Parties must urgently redouble their climate efforts if they are to prevent global temperature increases beyond the Paris Agreement's goal of well below 2 degrees Celsius - ideally 1.5 degrees Celsius - by the end of the century. Overshooting the temperature goals will lead to a destabilised world and endless suffering, especially among those who have contributed the least to the GHG emissions in the atmosphere. This updated report unfortunately confirms the trend already indicated in the full Synthesis Report, which is that we are nowhere near where science says we should be," said Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, Patricia Espinosa.

The IPCC has estimated that limiting global average temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius requires a reduction of CO2 emissions of 45 per cent in 2030 or a 25 per cent reduction by 2030 to limit warming to 2 degrees Celsius. If emissions are not reduced by 2030, they will need to be substantially reduced thereafter to compensate for the slow start on the path to net zero emissions, but likely at a higher cost.

COP26 President-designate Alok Sharma said the report underlined why countries need to show ambitious climate action at COP26. "This latest report from the UNFCCC makes clear, to protect the world from the most devastating impacts of climate change, countries must take more ambitious action on emissions, and they must act now."

"If countries deliver on their 2030 NDCs and net zero commitments, which have been announced by mid-October, we will be heading towards average global temperature rises of just above 2 degrees Celsius. Analysis suggests the commitments made in Paris would have capped the rise in temperature to below 4 degrees Celsius."

"So there has been progress, but not enough. That is why we especially need the biggest emitters, the G20 nations, to come forward with stronger commitments if we are to keep 1.5 degrees Celsius in reach over this critical decade," he said, adding, "Glasgow must launch a decade of ever-increasing ambition. At COP26 we must come together for ourselves, future generations and our planet."

Espinosa clarified that parties can submit NDCs or update already submitted NDCs at any time, including during COP26. India has not yet declared whether it wants to update its NDCs.