Sasikala's CM hopes rest on Supreme Court ruling in disproportionate assets case today

NEW DELHI, Feb 14 : AIADMK chief V K Sasikala's prospects of becoming Tamil Nadu chief minister+ hang in the balance with the Supreme Court set to pronounce its verdict on Tuesday either acquitting or convicting her in a disproportionate assets case.The ruling can have a direct bearing on the political uncertainty that has gripped the state ever since last week when the apex court said it would deliver the long-pending verdict. An all-clear will immediately boost Sasikala's chances of outsmarting caretaker CM+ O Panneerselvam as the legitimate successor to late AIADMK supremo+ J Jayalalithaa.

An adverse verdict can disqualify her from becoming a legislator and force Sasikala to look for another nominee. Such a scenario can work to Panneerselvam's advantage as he seeks to undercut Sasikala's strong grip over party MLAs+ .

There is a possibility that the verdict itself could be the cause for further suspense. A split verdict by the two-judge bench will mean the case is referred to a larger bench. Governor Vidyasagar Rao may then have to bank on attorney general Mukul Rohatgi's opinion delivered to him on Monday.Sources said Rohatgi has suggested to the governor+ to summon a special session of the assembly "possibly within a week" and conduct a composite floor test to determine who enjoys the confidence of the House - Sasikala or Pannerselvam.

The case titled State of Karnataka vs Jayalalithaa and others, which includes the names of Sasikala and her relatives J Elavarasi and V N Sudhakaran, the disowned foster son of Jayalalithaa, is listed for judgment on Tuesday at 10.30am before a bench of Justices P C Ghose and Amitava Roy.

Both judges will deliver separate judgments.The list of business in the causelist of SC mentions the names of both Justices Ghose and Roy, making it apparent that both would deliver separate judgments. If the judgments are concurring and favouring Sasikala's acquittal, then fortune could smile on her.

If the judgment upholds the trial court verdict convicting Sasikala and others, the odds against her becoming CM will rise steeply.In case of a split verdict, the two-judge bench has to refer the case to a three-judge bench, which will have to hear arguments afresh before deciding whether the trial court or the high court was correct in its decision. The governor may then heed Rohatgi's opinion.

The SC had ordered a composite floor test in the UP assembly in 1998 to determine who enjoyed majority - Kalyan Singh or Jagdambika Pal.It had opted for a similar floor test in Jharkhand in 2005 as well to determine whether Arjun Munda or Shibu Soren enjoyed majority in the House.

The legal proceedings in the DA case against Jayalalithaa and Sasikala go back two decades. The apex court had transferred the trial to Bengaluru after a DMK member, K Anbazaghan, moved court alleging that the trial may not be free and fair if it continued in Chennai when the main accused was chief minister.

The Bengaluru trial court convicted Jayalalithaa on September 27, 2014, and awarded her four years imprisonment along with Rs 100 crore fine, with Rs 10 crore fine on the other three. The conviction disqualified her as an MLA requiring her to step down as CM. But she returned as CM after Karnataka HC on May 11, 2015 acquitted her, Sasikala and the others in the DA case.

The HC in its 919 page verdict had said, "The percentage of disproportionate assets (DA) is 8.12%. It is relatively small. In the instant case, the DA is less than 10% and it is within permissible limit. Therefore, accused are entitled for acquittal."