Men's ODI WC: Threat from fast-bowlers with the new ball looms large on the tournament

New Delhi, Oct 5 (IANS) When the 2023 Men's ODI World Cup opener between England and New Zealand begins at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad on Thursday afternoon, it being the re-match of the 2019 finale at Lord’s won’t just be on the minds of fans from both countries.

Yes, both teams have sufficient batting power in their ranks and boast of effective spinners. But New Zealand and England also match up well on the fast-bowling front. Despite losing Tim Southee for Thursday’s opener, Trent Boult's threat looms large on England’s batters.

Remember that final at Lord’s in 2019 – when Boult almost trapped Jason Roy lbw with an inswinger from over the wicket, only for the right-handed batter to survive on umpire’s call, leading the way to a nervy start for England, which led to a dramatic final.

On his return to ODI cricket last month, after a year of playing franchise T20 leagues, Boult was back to remind everyone of his class in the format, an example of which was taking 5-51 at The Oval, even when Ben Stokes was blazing his way to 182.

Since 2022, Boult has taken 16 wickets in power-play, a phase where he has excelled in white-ball games. Giving him company is right-arm pacer Matt Henry, who has taken 18 wickets in 20 matches at the same phase. The Boult-Henry new-ball pair combination gives New Zealand the strength in its fast-bowling arsenal.

Apart from Boult and Henry, India’s Mohammed Siraj is heading the list for leading fast-bowlers in the first power-play. Siraj had a far-from-ideal start to international career, but has turned tables since 2022.

He has picked 32 wickets in 28 games in this phase, averaging 16.9 and at an economy rate of 4.3, forming a striking new-ball pair with Jasprit Bumrah and playing a big part in the resurrection of India’s fortunes in this phase of the game.

Australia have Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood as their new-ball strike pair. From an England perspective, Chris Woakes, Reece Topley, David Willey and Sam Curran are capable bowlers, but have been underwhelming in the first ten overs, with their average going above 50. 

Pakistan also have a new-ball striker in Shaheen Shah Afridi, but hasn’t been much incisive post the opening over. Since 2022, he has taken five wickets in the opening over, but after that, he has taken only six scalps.

There is something in the new-ball attacks which always makes the fast-bowlers, especially the ones who bowl full or can execute a short-ball barrage, a good threat which looms over the batters in the upcoming 2023 Men’s ODI World Cup.

It has been observed that the new ball swings a lot in the first ten overs in India and then shows less lateral movement once the phase is over. In the observations from the ODIs post 2019 Men’s ODI World Cup, from the statistics provided by Cricket-21, fast-bowlers have benefited in the first power-play, when they have gone fuller with the swing or with the usage of short balls at the batters.

Pacers in the first power-play have bowled 22.6% deliveries on fuller length, picking 159 wickets while averaging 37 and at an economy rate of 7. It is followed by 51.9% deliveries being good length, yielding 285 wickets at an average of 24.8 and economy rate of 3.6, while back of length deliveries were at 20.4%, giving 108 scalps at an average of 39.4 and economy rate of 5.6.

The corresponding figures for the spinners in the first power-play look as: - 66.6% deliveries on the good length have brought 65 wickets at an average of 23.5 and economy rate of 3.9. The fuller length deliveries were at 15.6%, giving eight scalps, with the average shooting up to 63.5 and economy rate of 5.5.

When it comes to middle overs, considered the toughest phase for the pacers and also the decider between winning and losing teams, good length deliveries (316 wickets, 32.9 average and 4.2 economy rate) and yorkers (20 wickets, 16.4 average, 4.3 economy rate) instantly take the centre stage from a fast-bowlers perspective, though high-pace enforcers are also preferred by teams. 

The same is the case with death overs: - yorkers turn out to be a goldmine for fast bowlers, giving them 45 wickets at an average of 12.3 and an economy rate of 5. Though pacers have a higher economy (9.2) in the last 10 overs when going fuller, it has given them 214 scalps at a strike rate of 13. In terms of good length in the last ten overs, fast bowlers have got 176 wickets at an average of 20.5 and an economy rate of 6.8.

Good length is also what has given spinners most returns: 648 scalps at an average of 31.3 and economy rate of 4.6 in middle overs, followed by 144 wickets at an average of 21.2 and economy rate of 6 in the death, a phase where they tend to bowl more than in the first ten overs.

Moreover, between the last ODI World Cup and the upcoming edition, more teams have been bowled out than in any other four-year cycle of the quadrennial event. In fact, last two years have seen more teams failing to complete their quota of 50 overs; it stands at 37.5% in 2022 and 43.94% in 2023, before the start of the World Cup. 

With the bat, hosts India have most number of 300+ totals after 2019 World Cup ended - at 17, followed by defending champions England and Bangladesh at nine respectively. In terms of batting second, New Zealand have most 275+ totals – at 11, followed by India at 10 and Pakistan at 8.

But with the scare of dew around in the evening, teams could go hard at the start to get an extra cushion of runs for defending their totals. It will be interesting to see that with dew around in the months of October and November, how the faster bowlers cope up with bowling on Indian venues, so as the spinners. For now, fast-bowlers making those crucial strikes in the first ten overs will be the key in paving the path for the teams to win the trophy.